The Anna Karenina principle: A concept for the explanation of success in science

The first sentence of Leo Tolstoy's novel Anna Karenina is: " Happy families are all alike; every unhappy family is unhappy in its own way. " Here Tolstoy means that for a family to be happy, several key aspects must be given (such as good health of all family members, acceptable financial security, and mutual affection). If there is a deficiency in any one or more of these key aspects, the family will be unhappy. In this paper we introduce the Anna Karenina principle as a concept that can explain success in science. Here we will refer to three central areas in modern science in which scarce resources will most usually lead to failure: (1) peer review of research grant proposals and manuscripts (money and journal space as scarce resources), (2) citation of publications (reception as a scarce resource), and (3) new scientific discoveries (recognition as a scarce resource). If resources are scarce (journal space, funds, reception, and recognition), there can be success only when several key prerequisites for the allocation of the resources are fulfilled. If any one of these prerequisites is not fulfilled, the grant proposal, manuscript submission, the published paper, or the discovery will not be successful. 1 Introduction The first sentence of Tolstoy's novel Anna Karenina is: " Happy families are all alike; every unhappy family is unhappy in its own way " (Tolstoy, 1875-1877/2001, p. 1). Here Tolstoy means that for a family to be happy, several key aspects must be given (such as good health of all family members, acceptable financial security, and mutual affection). If there is a deficiency or failure in any one or more of these key aspects, the family will be unhappy. As there are a number of things required for a happy family and an unhappy family lacks a certain constellation of aspects (or at least one aspect), each unhappy family is unhappy in its own very specific way. sentence of the novel to understanding the requirements for success in complex undertakings, calling it the Anna Karenina principle (abbreviated here AKP). According to the AKP, for something to succeed several key aspects or conditions must be fulfilled. Failure in any one of these aspects leads to failure of the undertaking. That is, the success of complex undertakings always depends upon many factors, each of which is essential; if just one factor is lacking, the undertaking is doomed. The AKP …